2026-02-04-how-to-be-right

How to be right 90% of the time, and why I’d rather be wrong. Paul Buchheit

What if instead of dismissing everything new or daring, we acknowledge that the future is uncertain, and pursue some of these new ideas despite the risk? History has shown that no one can reliably pick the winners, but what if we were clever enough to pick the right ones 20% of the time? That would mean that were are still wrong 80% of the time.

Is it better to be right 90% of the time, or wrong 80% of the time? It depends on the risks and rewards. If we look at it as an investment where the losers go to zero and the winners have a 10x return, then we can see that it’s potentially better to be wrong 80% of the time:    .20 * 10 + .80 * 0 = 2